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Defensores Glew vs Ezeiza — Torneo Promocional Amateur 2026

Defensores Glew
Defensores Glew
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Ezeiza
Ezeiza
2/25/2024Torneo Promocional AmateurTorneo Promocional Amateur · Apertura - 1Estadio Lorenzo Arandilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Defensores Glew41%
×Draw26%
Ezeiza33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Defensores Glew
1.42
Ezeiza
1.25

Defensores Glew creates 14% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 23 away

creates per match

Defensores Glew
2.05
Ezeiza
1.17

allows per match

Defensores Glew
1.32
Ezeiza
0.78

finishing

Defensores Glew+0.00on par
Ezeiza+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Defensores Glew ↓

Ezeiza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Defensores Glew or draw
67%
Defensores Glew or Ezeiza
74%
Draw or Ezeiza
59%

Winning margin

Defensores Glew wins by 2+
19%
Ezeiza wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Defensores Glew 1+ goals
76%
Defensores Glew 2+ goals
41%
Defensores Glew 3+ goals
17%
Ezeiza 1+ goals
71%
Ezeiza 2+ goals
36%
Ezeiza 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Defensores Glew (draw refunded)
55%
Ezeiza (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Defensores Glew at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.32 · 22 matches

Ezeiza away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.78 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Defensores Glew attack 2.05 + Ezeiza defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.42

Ezeiza attack 1.17 + Defensores Glew defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Defensores Glew scores more
41%
level
26%
Ezeiza scores more
33%

Defensores Glew at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Defensores Glew will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Defensores Glew vs Ezeiza

Defensores Glew beat Ezeiza 3-0 in Torneo Promocional Amateur on February 25, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Lorenzo Arandilla in Almirante Brown, Provincia de Buenos Aires.