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Eyüpspor vs Fenerbahçe — League #203 2026

Eyüpspor
Eyüpspor
Preview
18:00
Fenerbahçe
Fenerbahçe
2/28/2027League #203League #203 · Round 23
56%
Fenerbahçe
model favours
22%22%56%

Fenerbahçe have won 4 in a row

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
61%
over 2.5 goals
59%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Eyüpspor22%
×Draw22%
Fenerbahçe56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eyüpspor
1.17
Fenerbahçe
1.98

Fenerbahçe creates 69% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 18 away

creates per match

Eyüpspor
1.41
Fenerbahçe
2.11

allows per match

Eyüpspor
1.85
Fenerbahçe
0.94

finishing

Eyüpspor-0.11scores less
Fenerbahçe+0.67scores more

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eyüpspor ↓

Fenerbahçe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Eyüpspor or draw
44%
Eyüpspor or Fenerbahçe
78%
Draw or Fenerbahçe
78%

Winning margin

Eyüpspor wins by 2+
9%
Fenerbahçe wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Eyüpspor 1+ goals
69%
Eyüpspor 2+ goals
33%
Eyüpspor 3+ goals
11%
Fenerbahçe 1+ goals
86%
Fenerbahçe 2+ goals
59%
Fenerbahçe 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Eyüpspor (draw refunded)
28%
Fenerbahçe (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eyüpspor at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.85 · 10 matches

Fenerbahçe away — creates 2.11, concedes 0.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eyüpspor attack 1.41 + Fenerbahçe defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.17

Fenerbahçe attack 2.11 + Eyüpspor defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Eyüpspor scores more
22%
level
22%
Fenerbahçe scores more
56%

Fenerbahçe at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Fenerbahçe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Fenerbahçe are unbeaten in 6 straight
  • Both teams scored in 3 of the last 4 meetings
  • Eyüpspor sit 17, Fenerbahçe 3 in the table
  • Fenerbahçe outscore their xG (2.6 vs 2.2 expected)
  • Their last 4 meetings averaged 3.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Eyüpspor
Balanced
Fenerbahçe
Possession-dominant
44%Possession55%
79%Pass accuracy83%
9.6ShotsBiggest gap17.6
1.29xG2.23
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
EyüpsporFenerbahçe

Head-to-head

4 previous meetings

0
Eyüpspor
2
Draws
2
Fenerbahçe
Avg goals: 3.5BTTS: 75%
3–30–31–21–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Eyüpspor
DLLDW
Fenerbahçe
WWWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eyüpspor vs Fenerbahçe — Match Preview

Eyüpspor face Fenerbahçe on February 28, 2027 in this League #203 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.