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Eyüpspor vs Etimesgut SK — League #205 2026

Eyüpspor
Eyüpspor
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Etimesgut SK
Etimesgut SK
12/3/2020League #205League #205 · Kirmizi - 13Eyüp Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Eyüpspor31%
×Draw22%
Etimesgut SK47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eyüpspor
1.50
Etimesgut SK
1.88

Etimesgut SK creates 25% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Eyüpspor
1.25
Etimesgut SK
1.75

allows per match

Eyüpspor
2.00
Etimesgut SK
1.75

finishing

Eyüpspor+0.00on par
Etimesgut SK+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eyüpspor ↓

Etimesgut SK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Eyüpspor or draw
53%
Eyüpspor or Etimesgut SK
78%
Draw or Etimesgut SK
69%

Winning margin

Eyüpspor wins by 2+
14%
Etimesgut SK wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Eyüpspor 1+ goals
78%
Eyüpspor 2+ goals
44%
Eyüpspor 3+ goals
19%
Etimesgut SK 1+ goals
85%
Etimesgut SK 2+ goals
56%
Etimesgut SK 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Eyüpspor (draw refunded)
40%
Etimesgut SK (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eyüpspor at home — creates 1.25, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Etimesgut SK away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eyüpspor attack 1.25 + Etimesgut SK defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.50

Etimesgut SK attack 1.75 + Eyüpspor defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Eyüpspor scores more
31%
level
22%
Etimesgut SK scores more
47%

Etimesgut SK at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Etimesgut SK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Eyüpspor vs Etimesgut SK

Eyüpspor beat Etimesgut SK 4-1 in League #205 on December 3, 2020.

The match was played at Eyüp Stadı in İstanbul.