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Etimesgut SK vs Eyüpspor — League #205 2026

Etimesgut SK
Etimesgut SK
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Eyüpspor
Eyüpspor
4/7/2021League #205League #205 · Kirmizi - 32Etimesgut Belediyesi Kemal Atatürk Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Etimesgut SK19%
×Draw30%
Eyüpspor51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Etimesgut SK
0.63
Eyüpspor
1.25

Eyüpspor creates 98% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Etimesgut SK
0.50
Eyüpspor
1.50

allows per match

Etimesgut SK
1.00
Eyüpspor
0.75

finishing

Etimesgut SK+0.00on par
Eyüpspor+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Etimesgut SK ↓

Eyüpspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–119%
0–212%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Etimesgut SK or draw
49%
Etimesgut SK or Eyüpspor
70%
Draw or Eyüpspor
81%

Winning margin

Etimesgut SK wins by 2+
5%
Eyüpspor wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Etimesgut SK 1+ goals
47%
Etimesgut SK 2+ goals
13%
Etimesgut SK 3+ goals
3%
Eyüpspor 1+ goals
71%
Eyüpspor 2+ goals
36%
Eyüpspor 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Etimesgut SK (draw refunded)
27%
Eyüpspor (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Etimesgut SK at home — creates 0.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Eyüpspor away — creates 1.50, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Etimesgut SK attack 0.50 + Eyüpspor defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.63

Eyüpspor attack 1.50 + Etimesgut SK defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Etimesgut SK scores more
19%
level
30%
Eyüpspor scores more
51%

Eyüpspor at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Eyüpspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Etimesgut SK vs Eyüpspor

Eyüpspor beat Etimesgut SK 1-0 in League #205 on April 7, 2021.

The match was played at Etimesgut Belediyesi Kemal Atatürk Stadyumu in Etimesgut.