Eyüpspor 2–1 Altınordu: Result & Stats | 1. Lig

Eyüpspor

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Altınordu

A. Ildız 58'

A. Öztürk 25'

A. Özek 89'

11/6/2022

1. Lig · Round 12Eyüp Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Eyüpspor51%

×Draw25%

Altınordu24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EyüpsporExpected goals in this matchAltınordu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.02

Eyüpspor

1.60

Altınordu

1.02

Eyüpspor creates 57% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 77 away

1.65

creates per match

1.23

0.82

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Eyüpspor

1.65

Altınordu

1.23

allows per match

Eyüpspor

0.82

Altınordu

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eyüpspor+0.00on par

Altınordu+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eyüpspor ↓

Altınordu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Eyüpspor or draw

76%

Eyüpspor or Altınordu

75%

Draw or Altınordu

49%

Winning margin

Eyüpspor wins by 2+

27%

Altınordu wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Eyüpspor 1+ goals

80%

Eyüpspor 2+ goals

47%

Eyüpspor 3+ goals

22%

Altınordu 1+ goals

64%

Altınordu 2+ goals

27%

Altınordu 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Eyüpspor (draw refunded)

68%

Altınordu (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eyüpspor at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.82 · 55 matches

Altınordu away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.55 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eyüpspor attack 1.65 + Altınordu defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.60

Altınordu attack 1.23 + Eyüpspor defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Eyüpspor scores more

51%

level

25%

Altınordu scores more

24%

Eyüpspor at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Eyüpspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

A. Öztürk

Eyüpspor · D

7.3

Match Events

25'

A. Öztürk↳ Ö. Bayram

40'

S. Badji← C. Alkılıç

44'

Metehan Yilmaz

46'

B. Bayar← S. Satılmış

55'

K. Sürmeli← S. Kınalı

58'

83'

84'

87'

89'

89'

90+4'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EyüpsporAltınordu

Overview

52%Possession48%

13Total Shots9

4Corners3

13Fouls14

Shots

13Total Shots9

5On Target3

6Off Target5

2Blocked1

8Inside Box4

5Outside Box5

Passing

52%Possession48%

453Total Passes403

361Accurate Passes305

80%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls14

1Yellow Cards2