Altınordu 1–2 Eyüpspor: Result & Stats | 1. Lig

Altınordu

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Eyüpspor

M. Mimaroğlu 77'

C. Alkılıç 54'

U. Demirok 29' (pen)

4/8/2023

1. Lig · Round 31Bornova Aziz Kocaoğlu Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Altınordu34%

×Draw26%

Eyüpspor40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AltınorduExpected goals in this matchEyüpspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.40

Altınordu

1.27

Eyüpspor

1.40

Eyüpspor creates 10% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 55 away

1.37

creates per match

1.51

1.29

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Altınordu

1.37

Eyüpspor

1.51

allows per match

Altınordu

1.29

Eyüpspor

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Altınordu+0.00on par

Eyüpspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Altınordu ↓

Eyüpspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Altınordu or draw

60%

Altınordu or Eyüpspor

74%

Draw or Eyüpspor

66%

Winning margin

Altınordu wins by 2+

15%

Eyüpspor wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Altınordu 1+ goals

72%

Altınordu 2+ goals

36%

Altınordu 3+ goals

14%

Eyüpspor 1+ goals

75%

Eyüpspor 2+ goals

41%

Eyüpspor 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Altınordu (draw refunded)

46%

Eyüpspor (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Altınordu at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.29 · 82 matches

Eyüpspor away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.18 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Altınordu attack 1.37 + Eyüpspor defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.27

Eyüpspor attack 1.51 + Altınordu defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Altınordu scores more

34%

level

26%

Eyüpspor scores more

40%

Eyüpspor at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Eyüpspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

70

M. Mimaroğlu

Altınordu · M

7.9

Match Events

6'

Ali Emre YanarGoal cancelled

21'

Ömer Bayram

28'

Ömer BayramPenalty confirmed

29'

Alperen Selvi

29'

U. DemirokPenalty

54'

C. Alkılıç↳ H. Akbunar

57'

H. Yener← A. Dere

58'

58'

61'

67'

67'

74'

Y. Del Valle← H. Akbunar

74'

R. Niyaz← O. Thill

77'

M. Mimaroğlu↳ E. Gürlük

87'

M. Yilmaz← K. Sürmeli

87'

F. Ezeh← C. Alkılıç

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AltınorduEyüpspor

Overview

58%Possession42%

17Total Shots8

5Corners0

13Fouls13

Shots

17Total Shots8

5On Target4

7Off Target2

5Blocked2

9Inside Box6

8Outside Box2

Passing

58%Possession42%

472Total Passes344

384Accurate Passes254

81%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls13

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides2