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Extreme vs CIVO United — Super League 2026

Extreme
Extreme
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
CIVO United
CIVO United
8/9/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 13CIVO Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Extreme28%
×Draw28%
CIVO United43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Extreme
0.97
CIVO United
1.27

CIVO United creates 31% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 80 away

creates per match

Extreme
0.80
CIVO United
1.06

allows per match

Extreme
1.47
CIVO United
1.15

finishing

Extreme+0.00on par
CIVO United+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Extreme ↓

CIVO United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Extreme or draw
57%
Extreme or CIVO United
72%
Draw or CIVO United
72%

Winning margin

Extreme wins by 2+
10%
CIVO United wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Extreme 1+ goals
62%
Extreme 2+ goals
25%
Extreme 3+ goals
7%
CIVO United 1+ goals
72%
CIVO United 2+ goals
36%
CIVO United 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Extreme (draw refunded)
40%
CIVO United (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Extreme at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

CIVO United away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.15 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Extreme attack 0.80 + CIVO United defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.97

CIVO United attack 1.06 + Extreme defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Extreme scores more
28%
level
28%
CIVO United scores more
43%

CIVO United at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "CIVO United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Extreme 1–1 CIVO United

Extreme and CIVO United drew 1-1 in Super League on August 9, 2023.

The match was played at CIVO Stadium in Lilongwe.