CIVO United 1–1 Extreme: Result & Stats

CIVO United

FT

1 – 1

Extreme

4/23/2023

Super League · Round 2CIVO Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

CIVO United59%

×Draw29%

Extreme12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CIVO UnitedExpected goals in this matchExtreme

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

0.43

CIVO United

1.30

Extreme

0.43

CIVO United creates 202% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 15 away

1.20

creates per match

0.27

0.59

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

CIVO United

1.20

Extreme

0.27

allows per match

CIVO United

0.59

Extreme

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CIVO United+0.00on par

Extreme+0.00on par

Total goals

Under75
Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No75
Yes25

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CIVO United ↓

Extreme →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–18%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–023%

1–110%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–16%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (23%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

52%48%2.5

25%75%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

CIVO United or draw

88%

CIVO United or Extreme

71%

Draw or Extreme

41%

Winning margin

CIVO United wins by 2+

29%

Extreme wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

CIVO United 1+ goals

73%

CIVO United 2+ goals

37%

CIVO United 3+ goals

14%

Extreme 1+ goals

35%

Extreme 2+ goals

7%

Extreme 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

CIVO United (draw refunded)

83%

Extreme (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

16%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CIVO United at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.59 · 79 matches

Extreme away — creates 0.27, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CIVO United attack 1.20 + Extreme defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.30

Extreme attack 0.27 + CIVO United defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

CIVO United scores more

59%

level

29%

Extreme scores more

12%

CIVO United at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "CIVO United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff