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Extreme vs Bangwe All Stars — Super League 2026

Extreme
Extreme
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Bangwe All Stars
Bangwe All Stars
10/14/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 20Nankhaka Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Extreme37%
×Draw29%
Bangwe All Stars35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Extreme
1.14
Bangwe All Stars
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 30 away

creates per match

Extreme
0.80
Bangwe All Stars
0.73

allows per match

Extreme
1.47
Bangwe All Stars
1.47

finishing

Extreme+0.00on par
Bangwe All Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Extreme ↓

Bangwe All Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Extreme or draw
65%
Extreme or Bangwe All Stars
71%
Draw or Bangwe All Stars
63%

Winning margin

Extreme wins by 2+
15%
Bangwe All Stars wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Extreme 1+ goals
68%
Extreme 2+ goals
32%
Extreme 3+ goals
11%
Bangwe All Stars 1+ goals
67%
Bangwe All Stars 2+ goals
30%
Bangwe All Stars 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Extreme (draw refunded)
51%
Bangwe All Stars (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Extreme at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

Bangwe All Stars away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.47 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Extreme attack 0.80 + Bangwe All Stars defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.14

Bangwe All Stars attack 0.73 + Extreme defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Extreme scores more
37%
level
29%
Bangwe All Stars scores more
35%

Extreme at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Extreme will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Extreme 3–2 Bangwe All Stars

Extreme beat Bangwe All Stars 3-2 in Super League on October 14, 2023.

The match was played at Nankhaka Stadium in Lilongwe.