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Bangwe All Stars vs Extreme — Super League 2026

Bangwe All Stars
Bangwe All Stars
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Extreme
Extreme
7/16/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 11Mpira Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Bangwe All Stars52%
×Draw30%
Extreme17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bangwe All Stars
1.23
Extreme
0.57

Bangwe All Stars creates 116% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 15 away

creates per match

Bangwe All Stars
1.07
Extreme
0.27

allows per match

Bangwe All Stars
0.87
Extreme
1.40

finishing

Bangwe All Stars+0.00on par
Extreme+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bangwe All Stars ↓

Extreme →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Bangwe All Stars or draw
83%
Bangwe All Stars or Extreme
70%
Draw or Extreme
48%

Winning margin

Bangwe All Stars wins by 2+
24%
Extreme wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Bangwe All Stars 1+ goals
71%
Bangwe All Stars 2+ goals
35%
Bangwe All Stars 3+ goals
13%
Extreme 1+ goals
43%
Extreme 2+ goals
11%
Extreme 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Bangwe All Stars (draw refunded)
75%
Extreme (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bangwe All Stars at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.87 · 30 matches

Extreme away — creates 0.27, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bangwe All Stars attack 1.07 + Extreme defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.23

Extreme attack 0.27 + Bangwe All Stars defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Bangwe All Stars scores more
52%
level
30%
Extreme scores more
17%

Bangwe All Stars at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Bangwe All Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Bangwe All Stars 0–0 Extreme

Bangwe All Stars and Extreme drew 0-0 in Super League on July 16, 2023.

The match was played at Mpira Stadium in Blantyre.