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Extremadura vs Deportivo La Coruna — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Extremadura
Extremadura
CANC
17:00
Deportivo La Coruna
Deportivo La Coruna
5/7/2022Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 35Estadio Francisco de la Hera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Extremadura22%
×Draw25%
Deportivo La Coruna53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Extremadura
0.92
Deportivo La Coruna
1.57

Deportivo La Coruna creates 71% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 68 away

creates per match

Extremadura
1.00
Deportivo La Coruna
1.15

allows per match

Extremadura
2.00
Deportivo La Coruna
0.84

finishing

Extremadura+0.00on par
Deportivo La Coruna+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Extremadura ↓

Deportivo La Coruna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–113%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Extremadura or draw
47%
Extremadura or Deportivo La Coruna
75%
Draw or Deportivo La Coruna
78%

Winning margin

Extremadura wins by 2+
7%
Deportivo La Coruna wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Extremadura 1+ goals
60%
Extremadura 2+ goals
23%
Extremadura 3+ goals
7%
Deportivo La Coruna 1+ goals
79%
Deportivo La Coruna 2+ goals
46%
Deportivo La Coruna 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Extremadura (draw refunded)
30%
Deportivo La Coruna (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Extremadura at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 12 matches

Deportivo La Coruna away — creates 1.15, concedes 0.84 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Extremadura attack 1.00 + Deportivo La Coruna defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.92

Deportivo La Coruna attack 1.15 + Extremadura defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Extremadura scores more
22%
level
25%
Deportivo La Coruna scores more
53%

Deportivo La Coruna at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Deportivo La Coruna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Extremadura host Deportivo La Coruna

May 7, 2022: Extremadura take on Deportivo La Coruna in Primera División RFEF - Group 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Extremadura host Deportivo La Coruna at Estadio Francisco de la Hera.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.