Deportivo La Coruna 1–2 Extremadura: Result & Stats

Deportivo La Coruna

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Extremadura

4/21/2019

Segunda División · Round 35Estadio de Riazor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Deportivo La Coruna43%

×Draw27%

Extremadura30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo La CorunaExpected goals in this matchExtremadura

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.09

Deportivo La Coruna

1.36

Extremadura

1.09

Deportivo La Coruna creates 25% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 42 away

1.42

creates per match

1.07

1.11

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Deportivo La Coruna

1.42

Extremadura

1.07

allows per match

Deportivo La Coruna

1.11

Extremadura

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo La Coruna+0.00on par

Extremadura+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo La Coruna ↓

Extremadura →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Deportivo La Coruna or draw

70%

Deportivo La Coruna or Extremadura

73%

Draw or Extremadura

57%

Winning margin

Deportivo La Coruna wins by 2+

20%

Extremadura wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Deportivo La Coruna 1+ goals

74%

Deportivo La Coruna 2+ goals

39%

Deportivo La Coruna 3+ goals

16%

Extremadura 1+ goals

66%

Extremadura 2+ goals

30%

Extremadura 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Deportivo La Coruna (draw refunded)

59%

Extremadura (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo La Coruna at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.11 · 85 matches

Extremadura away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.31 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo La Coruna attack 1.42 + Extremadura defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.36

Extremadura attack 1.07 + Deportivo La Coruna defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Deportivo La Coruna scores more

43%

level

27%

Extremadura scores more

30%

Deportivo La Coruna at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Deportivo La Coruna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo La Coruna vs Extremadura

Extremadura beat Deportivo La Coruna 2-1 in Segunda División on April 21, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio de Riazor in La Coruna.

Deportivo La Coruna vs Extremadura — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Deportivo La Coruna vs Extremadura