Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Extremadura vs Cultural Leonesa — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Extremadura
Extremadura
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Cultural Leonesa
Cultural Leonesa
2/19/2022Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 24Estadio Francisco de la Hera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Extremadura28%
×Draw25%
Cultural Leonesa47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Extremadura
1.16
Cultural Leonesa
1.58

Cultural Leonesa creates 36% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 88 away

creates per match

Extremadura
1.00
Cultural Leonesa
1.16

allows per match

Extremadura
2.00
Cultural Leonesa
1.31

finishing

Extremadura+0.00on par
Cultural Leonesa+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Extremadura ↓

Cultural Leonesa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Extremadura or draw
53%
Extremadura or Cultural Leonesa
75%
Draw or Cultural Leonesa
72%

Winning margin

Extremadura wins by 2+
11%
Cultural Leonesa wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Extremadura 1+ goals
69%
Extremadura 2+ goals
32%
Extremadura 3+ goals
11%
Cultural Leonesa 1+ goals
79%
Cultural Leonesa 2+ goals
47%
Cultural Leonesa 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Extremadura (draw refunded)
37%
Cultural Leonesa (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Extremadura at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 12 matches

Cultural Leonesa away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.31 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Extremadura attack 1.00 + Cultural Leonesa defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.16

Cultural Leonesa attack 1.16 + Extremadura defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Extremadura scores more
28%
level
25%
Cultural Leonesa scores more
47%

Cultural Leonesa at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Cultural Leonesa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Extremadura 1–3 Cultural Leonesa

Cultural Leonesa beat Extremadura 3-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on February 19, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Francisco de la Hera in Almendralejo.