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Cultural Leonesa vs Extremadura — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Cultural Leonesa
Cultural Leonesa
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Extremadura
Extremadura
10/16/2021Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 8Estadio Municipal Reino de León

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Cultural Leonesa60%
×Draw23%
Extremadura17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cultural Leonesa
1.83
Extremadura
0.87

Cultural Leonesa creates 110% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 12 away

creates per match

Cultural Leonesa
1.41
Extremadura
0.83

allows per match

Cultural Leonesa
0.91
Extremadura
2.25

finishing

Cultural Leonesa+0.00on par
Extremadura+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cultural Leonesa ↓

Extremadura →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Cultural Leonesa or draw
83%
Cultural Leonesa or Extremadura
77%
Draw or Extremadura
40%

Winning margin

Cultural Leonesa wins by 2+
35%
Extremadura wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Cultural Leonesa 1+ goals
84%
Cultural Leonesa 2+ goals
54%
Cultural Leonesa 3+ goals
28%
Extremadura 1+ goals
58%
Extremadura 2+ goals
22%
Extremadura 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Cultural Leonesa (draw refunded)
77%
Extremadura (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cultural Leonesa at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.91 · 88 matches

Extremadura away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cultural Leonesa attack 1.41 + Extremadura defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.83

Extremadura attack 0.83 + Cultural Leonesa defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Cultural Leonesa scores more
60%
level
23%
Extremadura scores more
17%

Cultural Leonesa at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Cultural Leonesa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cultural Leonesa vs Extremadura

Cultural Leonesa beat Extremadura 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on October 16, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Reino de León in León.