Extremadura UD II 1–0 CD Coria: Result & Stats

Extremadura UD II

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

CD Coria

10/27/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 10Polideportivo Municipal Tomás de la Hera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Extremadura UD II28%

×Draw28%

CD Coria44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Extremadura UD IIExpected goals in this matchCD Coria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

1.29

Extremadura UD II

0.96

CD Coria

1.29

CD Coria creates 34% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 45 away

1.35

creates per match

1.38

1.20

allows per match

0.56

creates per match

Extremadura UD II

1.35

CD Coria

1.38

allows per match

Extremadura UD II

1.20

CD Coria

0.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Extremadura UD II+0.00on par

CD Coria+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Extremadura UD II ↓

CD Coria →

0–011%

0–114%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Extremadura UD II or draw

56%

Extremadura UD II or CD Coria

72%

Draw or CD Coria

72%

Winning margin

Extremadura UD II wins by 2+

10%

CD Coria wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Extremadura UD II 1+ goals

62%

Extremadura UD II 2+ goals

25%

Extremadura UD II 3+ goals

CD Coria 1+ goals

72%

CD Coria 2+ goals

37%

CD Coria 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Extremadura UD II (draw refunded)

39%

CD Coria (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Extremadura UD II at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.20 · 40 matches

CD Coria away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.56 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Extremadura UD II attack 1.35 + CD Coria defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.96

CD Coria attack 1.38 + Extremadura UD II defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Extremadura UD II scores more

28%

level

28%

CD Coria scores more

44%

CD Coria at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "CD Coria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14: Extremadura UD II 1–0 CD Coria

Extremadura UD II beat CD Coria 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on October 27, 2019.

The match was played at Polideportivo Municipal Tomás de la Hera in Almendralejo.

Extremadura UD II vs CD Coria — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14: Extremadura UD II 1–0 CD Coria