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CD Coria vs Extremadura UD II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

CD Coria
CD Coria
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Extremadura UD II
Extremadura UD II
1/10/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 12Estadio La Isla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

CD Coria57%
×Draw24%
Extremadura UD II19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CD Coria
1.69
Extremadura UD II
0.85

CD Coria creates 99% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 42 away

creates per match

CD Coria
2.14
Extremadura UD II
0.93

allows per match

CD Coria
0.77
Extremadura UD II
1.24

finishing

CD Coria+0.00on par
Extremadura UD II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CD Coria ↓

Extremadura UD II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

CD Coria or draw
81%
CD Coria or Extremadura UD II
76%
Draw or Extremadura UD II
43%

Winning margin

CD Coria wins by 2+
32%
Extremadura UD II wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

CD Coria 1+ goals
82%
CD Coria 2+ goals
50%
CD Coria 3+ goals
24%
Extremadura UD II 1+ goals
57%
Extremadura UD II 2+ goals
21%
Extremadura UD II 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

CD Coria (draw refunded)
75%
Extremadura UD II (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CD Coria at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.77 · 43 matches

Extremadura UD II away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.24 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CD Coria attack 2.14 + Extremadura UD II defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.69

Extremadura UD II attack 0.93 + CD Coria defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

CD Coria scores more
57%
level
24%
Extremadura UD II scores more
19%

CD Coria at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "CD Coria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CD Coria 1 – 2 Extremadura UD II

Extremadura UD II beat CD Coria 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on January 10, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio La Isla in Coria.