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Extremadura UD II vs Cacereño — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Extremadura UD II
Extremadura UD II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Cacereño
Cacereño
10/13/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 8Ciudad Deportiva de Almendralejo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Extremadura UD II24%
×Draw26%
Cacereño49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Extremadura UD II
0.96
Cacereño
1.49

Cacereño creates 55% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 27 away

creates per match

Extremadura UD II
1.35
Cacereño
1.78

allows per match

Extremadura UD II
1.20
Cacereño
0.56

finishing

Extremadura UD II+0.00on par
Cacereño+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Extremadura UD II ↓

Cacereño →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Extremadura UD II or draw
51%
Extremadura UD II or Cacereño
74%
Draw or Cacereño
76%

Winning margin

Extremadura UD II wins by 2+
9%
Cacereño wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Extremadura UD II 1+ goals
62%
Extremadura UD II 2+ goals
25%
Extremadura UD II 3+ goals
7%
Cacereño 1+ goals
77%
Cacereño 2+ goals
44%
Cacereño 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Extremadura UD II (draw refunded)
33%
Cacereño (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Extremadura UD II at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.20 · 40 matches

Cacereño away — creates 1.78, concedes 0.56 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Extremadura UD II attack 1.35 + Cacereño defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.96

Cacereño attack 1.78 + Extremadura UD II defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Extremadura UD II scores more
24%
level
26%
Cacereño scores more
49%

Cacereño at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Cacereño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Extremadura UD II 1 – 1 Cacereño

Extremadura UD II and Cacereño drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on October 13, 2019.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de Almendralejo in Almendralejo.