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Cacereño vs Extremadura UD II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Cacereño
Cacereño
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Extremadura UD II
Extremadura UD II
3/1/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 27Estadio Príncipe Felipe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Cacereño62%
×Draw23%
Extremadura UD II16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cacereño
1.81
Extremadura UD II
0.78

Cacereño creates 132% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 42 away

creates per match

Cacereño
2.38
Extremadura UD II
0.93

allows per match

Cacereño
0.62
Extremadura UD II
1.24

finishing

Cacereño+0.00on par
Extremadura UD II+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cacereño ↓

Extremadura UD II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Cacereño or draw
84%
Cacereño or Extremadura UD II
77%
Draw or Extremadura UD II
38%

Winning margin

Cacereño wins by 2+
36%
Extremadura UD II wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Cacereño 1+ goals
84%
Cacereño 2+ goals
54%
Cacereño 3+ goals
27%
Extremadura UD II 1+ goals
54%
Extremadura UD II 2+ goals
18%
Extremadura UD II 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Cacereño (draw refunded)
80%
Extremadura UD II (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cacereño at home — creates 2.38, concedes 0.62 · 26 matches

Extremadura UD II away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.24 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cacereño attack 2.38 + Extremadura UD II defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.81

Extremadura UD II attack 0.93 + Cacereño defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Cacereño scores more
62%
level
23%
Extremadura UD II scores more
16%

Cacereño at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Cacereño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cacereño vs Extremadura UD II

Cacereño and Extremadura UD II drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on March 1, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Príncipe Felipe in Cáceres.