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Express vs Arua Hill — Premier League 2019

Express
Express
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Arua Hill
Arua Hill
12/2/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 11Betway Muteesa II Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Express49%
×Draw27%
Arua Hill23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Express
1.41
Arua Hill
0.88

Express creates 60% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 36 away

creates per match

Express
1.40
Arua Hill
0.75

allows per match

Express
1.00
Arua Hill
1.42

finishing

Express+0.00on par
Arua Hill+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Express ↓

Arua Hill →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Express or draw
77%
Express or Arua Hill
73%
Draw or Arua Hill
51%

Winning margin

Express wins by 2+
24%
Arua Hill wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Express 1+ goals
76%
Express 2+ goals
41%
Express 3+ goals
17%
Arua Hill 1+ goals
59%
Arua Hill 2+ goals
22%
Arua Hill 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Express (draw refunded)
68%
Arua Hill (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Express at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.00 · 97 matches

Arua Hill away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.42 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Express attack 1.40 + Arua Hill defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.41

Arua Hill attack 0.75 + Express defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Express scores more
49%
level
27%
Arua Hill scores more
23%

Express at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Express will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Express 0–1 Arua Hill

Arua Hill beat Express 1-0 in Premier League on December 2, 2022.

The match was played at Betway Muteesa II Stadium in Kampala.