Arua Hill 1–0 Express: Result & Stats

Arua Hill

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Express

5/21/2022

Premier League · Round 30Barifa Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Arua Hill47%

×Draw27%

Express26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arua HillExpected goals in this matchExpress

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

0.97

Arua Hill

1.39

Express

0.97

Arua Hill creates 43% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 101 away

1.51

creates per match

0.93

1.00

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Arua Hill

1.51

Express

0.93

allows per match

Arua Hill

1.00

Express

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arua Hill+0.00on par

Express+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arua Hill ↓

Express →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Arua Hill or draw

74%

Arua Hill or Express

73%

Draw or Express

53%

Winning margin

Arua Hill wins by 2+

22%

Express wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Arua Hill 1+ goals

75%

Arua Hill 2+ goals

40%

Arua Hill 3+ goals

16%

Express 1+ goals

62%

Express 2+ goals

25%

Express 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Arua Hill (draw refunded)

64%

Express (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arua Hill at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.00 · 37 matches

Express away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.26 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arua Hill attack 1.51 + Express defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.39

Express attack 0.93 + Arua Hill defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Arua Hill scores more

47%

level

27%

Express scores more

26%

Arua Hill at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Arua Hill will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff