Exeter City 3–2 Morecambe: Result & Stats

Exeter City

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Morecambe

J. Stansfield 70', 57', 49'

C. Stockton 90+14', 53'

5/7/2023

League One · Round 46St James Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Exeter City53%

×Draw24%

Morecambe23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Exeter CityExpected goals in this matchMorecambe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.04

Exeter City

1.71

Morecambe

1.04

Exeter City creates 64% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 46 away

1.24

creates per match

0.89

1.19

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Exeter City

1.24

Morecambe

0.89

allows per match

Exeter City

1.19

Morecambe

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Exeter City+0.00on par

Morecambe+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Exeter City ↓

Morecambe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Exeter City or draw

77%

Exeter City or Morecambe

76%

Draw or Morecambe

47%

Winning margin

Exeter City wins by 2+

29%

Morecambe wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Exeter City 1+ goals

82%

Exeter City 2+ goals

51%

Exeter City 3+ goals

24%

Morecambe 1+ goals

65%

Morecambe 2+ goals

28%

Morecambe 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Exeter City (draw refunded)

70%

Morecambe (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Exeter City at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.19 · 95 matches

Morecambe away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.17 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Exeter City attack 1.24 + Morecambe defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.71

Morecambe attack 0.89 + Exeter City defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Exeter City scores more

53%

level

24%

Morecambe scores more

23%

Exeter City at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Exeter City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

J. Stansfield

Exeter City · F

9.2

Match Events

35'

P. Sweeney← A. Hartridge

43'

R. Delaney← J. Taylor

46'

O. Niasse← A. Gnahoua

49'

J. Stansfield↳ S. Nombe

53'

C. Stockton↳ J. Weir

55'

A. Mayor← R. Cooney

55'

A. Hunter← D. Crowley

57'

J. Stansfield

62'

L. Shaw← F. Rawson

63'

J. Sparkes← D. Mitchell

63'

H. Kite← K. Chauke

70'

J. Stansfield↳ J. Key

72'

Pedro Borges

74'

J. Caprice← Pedro Borges

75'

S. Cox← J. Stansfield

77'

79'

81'

83'

85'

D. Simeu← J. Austerfield

87'

J. Scott← S. Nombe

90+5'

Jake Caprice

90+6'

Ashley Hunter

90+14'

4 C. Stockton↳ A. Mayor

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ExeterMorecambe

Overview

69%Possession31%

15Total Shots14

7Corners1

12Fouls10

Shots

15Total Shots14

3On Target6

4Off Target5

8Blocked3

10Inside Box8

5Outside Box6

Passing

69%Possession31%

573Total Passes264

452Accurate Passes140

79%Pass Accuracy53%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls10

4Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1