Exeter City 0–2 Morecambe: Result & Stats

Exeter City

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Morecambe

C. Stockton 66'

A. Phillips 9' (pen)

1/26/2021

League Two · Round 26St James Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Exeter City51%

×Draw25%

Morecambe25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Exeter CityExpected goals in this matchMorecambe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.06

Exeter City

1.63

Morecambe

1.06

Exeter City creates 54% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 93 away

1.53

creates per match

1.17

0.96

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Exeter City

1.53

Morecambe

1.17

allows per match

Exeter City

0.96

Morecambe

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Exeter City+0.00on par

Morecambe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Exeter City ↓

Morecambe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Exeter City or draw

75%

Exeter City or Morecambe

75%

Draw or Morecambe

49%

Winning margin

Exeter City wins by 2+

27%

Morecambe wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Exeter City 1+ goals

80%

Exeter City 2+ goals

48%

Exeter City 3+ goals

22%

Morecambe 1+ goals

65%

Morecambe 2+ goals

29%

Morecambe 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Exeter City (draw refunded)

67%

Morecambe (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Exeter City at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.96 · 98 matches

Morecambe away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.73 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Exeter City attack 1.53 + Morecambe defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.63

Morecambe attack 1.17 + Exeter City defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Exeter City scores more

51%

level

25%

Morecambe scores more

25%

Exeter City at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Exeter City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

J. Andrésson

Morecambe · G

8.2

Match Events

8'

Jonathan Maxted

9'

A. PhillipsPenalty

21'

N. Law← B. Seymour

22'

J. Caprice← A. Hartridge

46'

J. Sparkes← J. Key

56'

Adam Phillips

61'

J. Taylor← N. Atangana

66'

C. Stockton↳ A. Phillips

69'

J. Slew← Carlos Gomes

84'

L. McAlinden← J. OSullivan

85'

Toumani Diagouraga

89'

B. Pringle← A. Phillips

90'

Ryan Cooney

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ExeterMorecambe

Overview

69%Possession31%

10Total Shots8

9Corners2

9Fouls10

Shots

10Total Shots8

7On Target3

1Off Target4

2Blocked1

8Inside Box5

2Outside Box3

Passing

69%Possession31%

564Total Passes254

430Accurate Passes139

76%Pass Accuracy55%

Goalkeeping

1Saves7

Discipline

9Fouls10

1Yellow Cards3

0Offsides4