Exeter City 1–2 Leyton Orient: Result & Stats

Exeter City

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Leyton Orient

D. Mitchell 48'

R. Sotiriou 90+2'

J. Pigott 55'

9/9/2023

League One · Round 7St James Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Exeter City41%

×Draw23%

Leyton Orient36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Exeter CityExpected goals in this matchLeyton Orient

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.58

Exeter City

1.69

Leyton Orient

1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

1.56

creates per match

1.05

2.12

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Exeter City

1.56

Leyton Orient

1.05

allows per match

Exeter City

2.12

Leyton Orient

1.81

-0.29scores less than expected

finishing

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

Exeter City-0.29scores less

Leyton Orient-0.23scores less

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Exeter City ↓

Leyton Orient →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Exeter City or draw

64%

Exeter City or Leyton Orient

77%

Draw or Leyton Orient

59%

Winning margin

Exeter City wins by 2+

21%

Leyton Orient wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Exeter City 1+ goals

82%

Exeter City 2+ goals

50%

Exeter City 3+ goals

24%

Leyton Orient 1+ goals

79%

Leyton Orient 2+ goals

47%

Leyton Orient 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Exeter City (draw refunded)

53%

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Exeter City at home — creates 1.56, concedes 2.12 · 11 matches

Leyton Orient away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.81 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Exeter City attack 1.56 + Leyton Orient defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.69

Leyton Orient attack 1.05 + Exeter City defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Exeter City scores more

41%

level

23%

Leyton Orient scores more

36%

Exeter City at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Exeter City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

T. James

Leyton Orient · D

7.9

Match Events

45+2'

Theodore Archibald

48'

D. Mitchell↳ J. Richards

55'

J. Pigott↳ J. Graham

59'

Darren Pratley

65'

K. Taylor← S. Cox

69'

J. Brown← G. Moncur

81'

M. Beardmore← J. Richards

81'

Pedro Borges← D. Mitchell

86'

R. Hunt← B. Cooper

86'

E. Galbraith← J. Graham

90+6'

90+5'

90'

90+3'

90+5'

90+2'

R. Sotiriou↳ E. Galbraith

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ExeterLeyton

Overview

56%Possession44%

5Total Shots19

4Corners10

12Fouls10

Shots

5Total Shots19

2On Target7

3Off Target7

0Blocked5

3Inside Box10

2Outside Box9

Passing

56%Possession44%

412Total Passes302

297Accurate Passes196

72%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls10

3Yellow Cards3

6Offsides0