Exeter City 3–2 Grimsby: Result & Stats

Exeter City

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Grimsby

R. Bowman 88'

A. Fisher 83'

L. Waterfall 33' (OG)

J. Matete 58'

L. John-Lewis 41' (pen)

4/27/2021

League Two · Round 30St James Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Exeter City29%

×Draw23%

Grimsby48%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Exeter CityExpected goals in this matchGrimsby

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.87

Exeter City

1.41

Grimsby

1.87

Grimsby creates 33% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 35 away

1.50

creates per match

1.49

2.25

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Exeter City

1.50

Grimsby

1.49

allows per match

Exeter City

2.25

Grimsby

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Exeter City+0.00on par

Grimsby+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Exeter City ↓

Grimsby →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Exeter City or draw

52%

Exeter City or Grimsby

77%

Draw or Grimsby

71%

Winning margin

Exeter City wins by 2+

13%

Grimsby wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Exeter City 1+ goals

76%

Exeter City 2+ goals

41%

Exeter City 3+ goals

17%

Grimsby 1+ goals

85%

Grimsby 2+ goals

56%

Grimsby 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Exeter City (draw refunded)

38%

Grimsby (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Exeter City at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

Grimsby away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.31 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Exeter City attack 1.50 + Grimsby defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.41

Grimsby attack 1.49 + Exeter City defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Exeter City scores more

29%

level

23%

Grimsby scores more

48%

Grimsby at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Grimsby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

P. Sweeney

Exeter City · D

7.7

Match Events

33'

L. WaterfallOwn goal

41'

L. John-LewisPenalty

58'

J. Matete↳ E. Khouri

60'

M. Jay← N. Atangana

61'

Jay Matete

64'

A. Fisher← R. Willmott

64'

R. Bowman← B. Seymour

65'

A. Hartridge← L. Page

70'

S. Habergham← M. Green

72'

J. Sparkes← T. Parkes

79'

Archie Collins

83'

A. Fisher

88'

R. Bowman↳ P. Sweeney

90'

Rollin Menayese

90+2'

I. Jackson← L. Waterfall

90+1'

S. Scannell← L. Spokes

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ExeterGrimsby

Overview

58%Possession42%

13Total Shots9

7Corners4

15Fouls16

Shots

13Total Shots9

4On Target6

6Off Target0

3Blocked3

10Inside Box4

3Outside Box5

Passing

58%Possession42%

410Total Passes308

312Accurate Passes186

76%Pass Accuracy60%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls16

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

3Offsides0