Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Exeter City vs Grimsby — League Two 2025

Exeter City
Exeter City
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Grimsby
Grimsby
R. Bowman 90+4'
E. Robson 67', 23'
M. Ogbu 59' (pen)
9/28/2019League TwoLeague Two · Round 11St James Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Exeter City29%
×Draw23%
Grimsby48%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Exeter City
1.41
Grimsby
1.87

Grimsby creates 33% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 35 away

creates per match

Exeter City
1.50
Grimsby
1.49

allows per match

Exeter City
2.25
Grimsby
1.31

finishing

Exeter City+0.00on par
Grimsby+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Exeter City ↓

Grimsby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Exeter City or draw
52%
Exeter City or Grimsby
77%
Draw or Grimsby
71%

Winning margin

Exeter City wins by 2+
13%
Grimsby wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Exeter City 1+ goals
76%
Exeter City 2+ goals
41%
Exeter City 3+ goals
17%
Grimsby 1+ goals
85%
Grimsby 2+ goals
56%
Grimsby 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Exeter City (draw refunded)
38%
Grimsby (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Exeter City at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

Grimsby away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.31 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Exeter City attack 1.50 + Grimsby defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.41

Grimsby attack 1.49 + Exeter City defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Exeter City scores more
29%
level
23%
Grimsby scores more
48%

Grimsby at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Grimsby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12
E. RobsonGrimsbyGrimsby · M
8.3

Match Events

22'
Liam Gibson
23'
E. Robson↳ J. Hessenthaler
25'
Ethan Robson
32'
Archie Collins
46'
J. Richardson← J. Sparkes
59'
Dean Moxey
59'
M. OgbuPenalty
60'
J. Hanson← A. Rose
63'
A. Fisher← A. Collins
67'
H. Davis← L. Gibson
67'
E. Robson↳ M. Ogbu
69'
Jake Hessenthaler
73'
E. Whitehouse← M. Ogbu
76'
Pierce Sweeney
77'
Max Wright
78'
B. Seymour← L. Martin
82'
Jake Taylor
90+4'
R. Bowman↳ R. Williams

Possession

55%Exeter

Shots

22Exeter

Pass accuracy

51%Exeter

Statistics

ExeterGrimsby
Overview
55%Possession45%
22Total Shots7
8Corners1
16Fouls13
Shots
22Total Shots7
5On Target3
9Off Target2
8Blocked2
16Inside Box4
6Outside Box3
Passing
55%Possession45%
386Total Passes322
267Accurate Passes208
69%Pass Accuracy65%
Goalkeeping
0Saves3
Discipline
16Fouls13
4Yellow Cards4
0Offsides3

League Two: Exeter City 1–3 Grimsby

Grimsby beat Exeter City 3-1 in League Two on September 28, 2019.

Goals: E. Robson (23', 67'), M. Ogbu (59' pen), R. Bowman (90+4').

Exeter City controlled possession (55%) and registered 22 shots to 7.

The match was played at St James Park in Exeter, Devon.