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Exeter City vs Carlisle — League One 2018

Exeter City
Exeter City
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Carlisle
Carlisle
1/6/2024League OneLeague One · Round 27St James Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Exeter City47%
×Draw26%
Carlisle27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Exeter City
1.46
Carlisle
1.04

Exeter City creates 40% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 23 away

creates per match

Exeter City
1.23
Carlisle
0.87

allows per match

Exeter City
1.21
Carlisle
1.70

finishing

Exeter City+0.00on par
Carlisle+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Exeter City ↓

Carlisle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Exeter City or draw
73%
Exeter City or Carlisle
74%
Draw or Carlisle
53%

Winning margin

Exeter City wins by 2+
23%
Carlisle wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Exeter City 1+ goals
77%
Exeter City 2+ goals
43%
Exeter City 3+ goals
18%
Carlisle 1+ goals
65%
Carlisle 2+ goals
28%
Carlisle 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Exeter City (draw refunded)
63%
Carlisle (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Exeter City at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.21 · 92 matches

Carlisle away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.70 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Exeter City attack 1.23 + Carlisle defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.46

Carlisle attack 0.87 + Exeter City defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Exeter City scores more
47%
level
26%
Carlisle scores more
27%

Exeter City at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Exeter City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Exeter City 2–1 Carlisle

Exeter City beat Carlisle 2-1 in League One on January 6, 2024.

The match was played at St James Park in Exeter, Devon.