Carlisle 1–0 Exeter City: Result & Stats

Carlisle

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Exeter City

1/30/2021

League Two · Round 27Brunton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Carlisle37%

×Draw27%

Exeter City36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CarlisleExpected goals in this matchExeter City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.22

Carlisle

1.25

Exeter City

1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 134 home / 90 away

1.31

creates per match

1.24

1.20

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Carlisle

1.31

Exeter City

1.24

allows per match

Carlisle

1.20

Exeter City

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carlisle+0.00on par

Exeter City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlisle ↓

Exeter City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Carlisle or draw

64%

Carlisle or Exeter City

73%

Draw or Exeter City

63%

Winning margin

Carlisle wins by 2+

16%

Exeter City wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Carlisle 1+ goals

71%

Carlisle 2+ goals

36%

Carlisle 3+ goals

13%

Exeter City 1+ goals

70%

Exeter City 2+ goals

34%

Exeter City 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Carlisle (draw refunded)

51%

Exeter City (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlisle at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.20 · 134 matches

Exeter City away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.18 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlisle attack 1.31 + Exeter City defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.25

Exeter City attack 1.24 + Carlisle defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Carlisle scores more

37%

level

27%

Exeter City scores more

36%

Carlisle at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Carlisle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff