Exeter City 1–0 Carlisle: Result & Stats

Exeter City

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Carlisle

T. Parkes 48'

10/31/2020

League Two · Round 10St James Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Exeter City47%

×Draw27%

Carlisle27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Exeter CityExpected goals in this matchCarlisle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.02

Exeter City

1.44

Carlisle

1.02

Exeter City creates 41% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 115 away

1.53

creates per match

1.07

0.96

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Exeter City

1.53

Carlisle

1.07

allows per match

Exeter City

0.96

Carlisle

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Exeter City+0.00on par

Carlisle+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Exeter City ↓

Carlisle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Exeter City or draw

73%

Exeter City or Carlisle

73%

Draw or Carlisle

53%

Winning margin

Exeter City wins by 2+

23%

Carlisle wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Exeter City 1+ goals

76%

Exeter City 2+ goals

42%

Exeter City 3+ goals

18%

Carlisle 1+ goals

64%

Carlisle 2+ goals

27%

Carlisle 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Exeter City (draw refunded)

64%

Carlisle (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Exeter City at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.96 · 98 matches

Carlisle away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.35 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Exeter City attack 1.53 + Carlisle defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.44

Carlisle attack 1.07 + Exeter City defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Exeter City scores more

47%

level

27%

Carlisle scores more

27%

Exeter City at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Exeter City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

T. Parkes

Exeter City · D

8.0

Match Events

25'

M. Hunt← A. Hayden

48'

T. Parkes↳ N. Law

53'

Jack Sparkes

60'

Gime Toure

64'

O. Patrick← J. Riley

74'

G. Reilly← J. Mellish

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ExeterCarlisle

Overview

51%Possession49%

9Total Shots12

3Corners6

11Fouls9

Shots

9Total Shots12

2On Target2

3Off Target6

4Blocked4

4Inside Box7

5Outside Box5

Passing

51%Possession49%

330Total Passes293

183Accurate Passes150

55%Pass Accuracy51%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls9

1Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards1

5Offsides0