Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Exeter City vs Cambridge United — League One 2018

Exeter City
Exeter City
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Cambridge United
Cambridge United
2/25/2023League OneLeague One · Round 34St James Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Exeter City48%
×Draw26%
Cambridge United27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Exeter City
1.50
Cambridge United
1.05

Exeter City creates 43% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 92 away

creates per match

Exeter City
1.23
Cambridge United
0.89

allows per match

Exeter City
1.21
Cambridge United
1.78

finishing

Exeter City+0.00on par
Cambridge United+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Exeter City ↓

Cambridge United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Exeter City or draw
73%
Exeter City or Cambridge United
74%
Draw or Cambridge United
52%

Winning margin

Exeter City wins by 2+
24%
Cambridge United wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Exeter City 1+ goals
78%
Exeter City 2+ goals
44%
Exeter City 3+ goals
19%
Cambridge United 1+ goals
65%
Cambridge United 2+ goals
28%
Cambridge United 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Exeter City (draw refunded)
64%
Cambridge United (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Exeter City at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.21 · 92 matches

Cambridge United away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.78 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Exeter City attack 1.23 + Cambridge United defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.50

Cambridge United attack 0.89 + Exeter City defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Exeter City scores more
48%
level
26%
Cambridge United scores more
27%

Exeter City at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Exeter City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Exeter City 2–0 Cambridge United

Exeter City beat Cambridge United 2-0 in League One on February 25, 2023.

The match was played at St James Park in Exeter, Devon.