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Cambridge United vs Exeter City — League One 2018

Cambridge United
Cambridge United
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Exeter City
Exeter City
2/15/2025League OneLeague One · Round 32Cledara Abbey Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Cambridge United41%
×Draw27%
Exeter City32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cambridge United
1.33
Exeter City
1.14

Cambridge United creates 17% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 93 away

creates per match

Cambridge United
1.08
Exeter City
1.05

allows per match

Cambridge United
1.22
Exeter City
1.58

finishing

Cambridge United+0.00on par
Exeter City+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cambridge United ↓

Exeter City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Cambridge United or draw
68%
Cambridge United or Exeter City
73%
Draw or Exeter City
59%

Winning margin

Cambridge United wins by 2+
19%
Exeter City wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Cambridge United 1+ goals
74%
Cambridge United 2+ goals
38%
Cambridge United 3+ goals
15%
Exeter City 1+ goals
68%
Exeter City 2+ goals
32%
Exeter City 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Cambridge United (draw refunded)
56%
Exeter City (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cambridge United at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.22 · 92 matches

Exeter City away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.58 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cambridge United attack 1.08 + Exeter City defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.33

Exeter City attack 1.05 + Cambridge United defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Cambridge United scores more
41%
level
27%
Exeter City scores more
32%

Cambridge United at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Cambridge United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cambridge United vs Exeter City

Exeter City beat Cambridge United 1-0 in League One on February 15, 2025.

The match was played at Cledara Abbey Stadium in Cambridge, Cambridgeshire.