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Exeter City vs Bristol Rovers — League Two 2018

Exeter City
Exeter City
Preview
14:00
Bristol Rovers
Bristol Rovers
4/24/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 43St James Park
Big match
46%
Exeter City
model favours
46%26%28%

Bristol Rovers score first in only 27% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
under 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Exeter City46%
×Draw26%
Bristol Rovers28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Exeter City
1.48
Bristol Rovers
1.09

Exeter City creates 36% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 59 away

creates per match

Exeter City
1.53
Bristol Rovers
1.22

allows per match

Exeter City
0.96
Bristol Rovers
1.42

finishing

Exeter City+0.00on par
Bristol Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Exeter City ↓

Bristol Rovers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Exeter City or draw
72%
Exeter City or Bristol Rovers
74%
Draw or Bristol Rovers
54%

Winning margin

Exeter City wins by 2+
23%
Bristol Rovers wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Exeter City 1+ goals
77%
Exeter City 2+ goals
43%
Exeter City 3+ goals
19%
Bristol Rovers 1+ goals
66%
Bristol Rovers 2+ goals
30%
Bristol Rovers 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Exeter City (draw refunded)
62%
Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Exeter City at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.96 · 98 matches

Bristol Rovers away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.42 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Exeter City attack 1.53 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.48

Bristol Rovers attack 1.22 + Exeter City defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Exeter City scores more
46%
level
26%
Bristol Rovers scores more
28%

Exeter City at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Exeter City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 82% of Bristol Rovers’s matches
  • 73% of Bristol Rovers’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both teams scored in 7 of the last 9 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Exeter City
Balanced
Bristol Rovers
Defensively solid
51%Possession52%
63%Pass accuracyBiggest gap66%
11.9Shots12.5
—xG1.38
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Exeter CityBristol Rovers

Head-to-head

9 previous meetings

5
Exeter City
2
Draws
2
Bristol Rovers
Avg goals: 3.3BTTS: 78%
2–13–10–11–04–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
City
LLDDD
Rovers
DDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Exeter City host Bristol Rovers

April 24, 2027: Exeter City take on Bristol Rovers in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Exeter City host Bristol Rovers at St James Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.