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Bristol Rovers vs Exeter City — League One 2018

Bristol Rovers
Bristol Rovers
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Exeter City
Exeter City
4/12/2025League OneLeague One · Round 42Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Bristol Rovers41%
×Draw26%
Exeter City32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bristol Rovers
1.38
Exeter City
1.19

Bristol Rovers creates 16% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 93 away

creates per match

Bristol Rovers
1.17
Exeter City
1.05

allows per match

Bristol Rovers
1.33
Exeter City
1.58

finishing

Bristol Rovers+0.00on par
Exeter City+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol Rovers ↓

Exeter City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Bristol Rovers or draw
68%
Bristol Rovers or Exeter City
74%
Draw or Exeter City
59%

Winning margin

Bristol Rovers wins by 2+
19%
Exeter City wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Bristol Rovers 1+ goals
75%
Bristol Rovers 2+ goals
40%
Bristol Rovers 3+ goals
16%
Exeter City 1+ goals
70%
Exeter City 2+ goals
33%
Exeter City 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)
56%
Exeter City (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol Rovers at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.33 · 133 matches

Exeter City away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.58 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol Rovers attack 1.17 + Exeter City defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.38

Exeter City attack 1.05 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Bristol Rovers scores more
41%
level
26%
Exeter City scores more
32%

Bristol Rovers at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Bristol Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Bristol Rovers 1–2 Exeter City

Exeter City beat Bristol Rovers 2-1 in League One on April 12, 2025.

The match was played at Memorial Stadium in Bristol, Gloucestershire.