Exeter City 3–1 Bristol Rovers: Result & Stats

Exeter City

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Bristol Rovers

12/26/2024

League One · Round 22St James Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Exeter City45%

×Draw27%

Bristol Rovers29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Exeter CityExpected goals in this matchBristol Rovers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.07

Exeter City

1.41

Bristol Rovers

1.07

Exeter City creates 32% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 133 away

1.23

creates per match

0.94

1.21

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Exeter City

1.23

Bristol Rovers

0.94

allows per match

Exeter City

1.21

Bristol Rovers

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Exeter City+0.00on par

Bristol Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Exeter City ↓

Bristol Rovers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Exeter City or draw

71%

Exeter City or Bristol Rovers

73%

Draw or Bristol Rovers

55%

Winning margin

Exeter City wins by 2+

21%

Bristol Rovers wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Exeter City 1+ goals

76%

Exeter City 2+ goals

41%

Exeter City 3+ goals

17%

Bristol Rovers 1+ goals

66%

Bristol Rovers 2+ goals

29%

Bristol Rovers 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Exeter City (draw refunded)

61%

Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Exeter City at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.21 · 92 matches

Bristol Rovers away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.58 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Exeter City attack 1.23 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.41

Bristol Rovers attack 0.94 + Exeter City defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Exeter City scores more

45%

level

27%

Bristol Rovers scores more

29%

Exeter City at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Exeter City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff