Exeter City 3–2 Bradford: Result & Stats

Exeter City

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Bradford

M. Jay 79' (pen)

R. Bowman 61'

P. Sweeney 41'

O. Crankshaw 45'

C. Vernam 17'

2/6/2021

League Two · Round 28St James Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Exeter City45%

×Draw27%

Bradford28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Exeter CityExpected goals in this matchBradford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.05

Exeter City

1.39

Bradford

1.05

Exeter City creates 32% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 139 away

1.53

creates per match

1.15

0.96

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Exeter City

1.53

Bradford

1.15

allows per match

Exeter City

0.96

Bradford

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Exeter City+0.00on par

Bradford+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Exeter City ↓

Bradford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Exeter City or draw

72%

Exeter City or Bradford

73%

Draw or Bradford

55%

Winning margin

Exeter City wins by 2+

21%

Bradford wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Exeter City 1+ goals

75%

Exeter City 2+ goals

40%

Exeter City 3+ goals

16%

Bradford 1+ goals

65%

Bradford 2+ goals

28%

Bradford 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Exeter City (draw refunded)

61%

Bradford (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Exeter City at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.96 · 98 matches

Bradford away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.24 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Exeter City attack 1.53 + Bradford defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.39

Bradford attack 1.15 + Exeter City defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Exeter City scores more

45%

level

27%

Bradford scores more

28%

Exeter City at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Exeter City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

R. Bowman

Exeter City · F

8.0

Match Events

12'

17'

23'

25'

41'

P. Sweeney↳ J. Sparkes

45'

O. Crankshaw

61'

R. Bowman↳ R. Willmott

68'

N. Canavan← F. Cousin-Dawson

69'

H. Pritchard← L. Sutton

71'

J. Randall← J. Key

73'

C. Donaldson← J. Stevens

78'

Sam Hornby

79'

M. JayPenalty

84'

B. Seymour← M. Jay

85'

A. Hartridge← R. Willmott

86'

K. Scales← O. Crankshaw

86'

R. Burrell← C. Vernam

90'

Paudie O’Connor

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ExeterBradford

Overview

60%Possession40%

12Total Shots5

4Corners3

12Fouls16

Shots

12Total Shots5

3On Target2

4Off Target1

5Blocked2

9Inside Box5

3Outside Box0

Passing

60%Possession40%

478Total Passes331

336Accurate Passes178

70%Pass Accuracy54%

Discipline

12Fouls16

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides3