Bradford 1–0 Exeter City: Result & Stats

Bradford

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Exeter City

J. Wright 20'

11/29/2025

League One · Round 18Valley Parade

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Bradford57%

×Draw23%

Exeter City20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BradfordExpected goals in this matchExeter City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

0.97

Bradford

1.80

Exeter City

0.97

Bradford creates 86% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

1.57

creates per match

1.02

0.92

allows per match

2.03

creates per match

Bradford

1.57

Exeter City

1.02

allows per match

Bradford

0.92

Exeter City

2.03

-0.32scores less than expected

finishing

+0.08on par

finishing

Bradford-0.32scores less

Exeter City+0.08on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bradford ↓

Exeter City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Bradford or draw

80%

Bradford or Exeter City

77%

Draw or Exeter City

43%

Winning margin

Bradford wins by 2+

32%

Exeter City wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Bradford 1+ goals

83%

Bradford 2+ goals

54%

Bradford 3+ goals

27%

Exeter City 1+ goals

62%

Exeter City 2+ goals

25%

Exeter City 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Bradford (draw refunded)

74%

Exeter City (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bradford at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

Exeter City away — creates 1.02, concedes 2.03 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bradford attack 1.57 + Exeter City defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.80

Exeter City attack 1.02 + Bradford defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Bradford scores more

57%

level

23%

Exeter City scores more

20%

Bradford at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Bradford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

J. Wright

Bradford · D

8.3

Match Events

20'

30'

46'

57'

69'

71'

72'

J. Yfeko← J. Doyle-Hayes

76'

Bobby Pointon

79'

N. Byrne← A. Baldwin

79'

T. McIntyre← B. Pointon

80'

E. Francis← J. McMillan

80'

J. Magennis← J. Aitchison

88'

Jayden Wareham

89'

Sam Walker

90+4'

J. Metcalfe←

90+2'

L. Woodhouse← E. Turns

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BradfordExeter

Overview

41%Possession59%

11Total Shots19

1.58Expected Goals (xG)1.61

7Corners7

15Fouls12

Shots

11Total Shots19

4On Target4

7Off Target9

0Blocked6

7Inside Box11

4Outside Box8

Passing

41%Possession59%

329Total Passes472

203Accurate Passes360

62%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls12

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides3