Excursionistas 2–1 Central Cordoba: Result & Stats

Excursionistas

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Central Cordoba

6/26/2022

Primera C · Apertura - 2Estadio de Excursionistas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Excursionistas46%

×Draw28%

Central Cordoba26%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ExcursionistasExpected goals in this matchCentral Cordoba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.91

Excursionistas

1.33

Central Cordoba

0.91

Excursionistas creates 46% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 143 away

1.59

creates per match

0.91

0.90

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Excursionistas

1.59

Central Cordoba

0.91

allows per match

Excursionistas

0.90

Central Cordoba

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Excursionistas+0.00on par

Central Cordoba+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Excursionistas ↓

Central Cordoba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Excursionistas or draw

74%

Excursionistas or Central Cordoba

72%

Draw or Central Cordoba

54%

Winning margin

Excursionistas wins by 2+

22%

Central Cordoba wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Excursionistas 1+ goals

74%

Excursionistas 2+ goals

38%

Excursionistas 3+ goals

15%

Central Cordoba 1+ goals

60%

Central Cordoba 2+ goals

23%

Central Cordoba 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Excursionistas (draw refunded)

64%

Central Cordoba (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Excursionistas at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.90 · 96 matches

Central Cordoba away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.06 · 143 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Excursionistas attack 1.59 + Central Cordoba defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.33

Central Cordoba attack 0.91 + Excursionistas defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Excursionistas scores more

46%

level

28%

Central Cordoba scores more

26%

Excursionistas at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Excursionistas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff