Central Cordoba 0–2 Excursionistas: Result & Stats

Central Cordoba

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Excursionistas

10/10/2023

Primera C · Round 38Estadio Gabino Sosa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Central Cordoba43%

×Draw29%

Excursionistas28%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Central CordobaExpected goals in this matchExcursionistas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.92

Central Cordoba

1.21

Excursionistas

0.92

Central Cordoba creates 32% more chances

Season form · 143 home / 93 away

1.13

creates per match

0.99

0.84

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Central Cordoba

1.13

Excursionistas

0.99

allows per match

Central Cordoba

0.84

Excursionistas

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Central Cordoba+0.00on par

Excursionistas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Cordoba ↓

Excursionistas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Central Cordoba or draw

72%

Central Cordoba or Excursionistas

71%

Draw or Excursionistas

57%

Winning margin

Central Cordoba wins by 2+

19%

Excursionistas wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Central Cordoba 1+ goals

70%

Central Cordoba 2+ goals

34%

Central Cordoba 3+ goals

12%

Excursionistas 1+ goals

60%

Excursionistas 2+ goals

23%

Excursionistas 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Central Cordoba (draw refunded)

60%

Excursionistas (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Cordoba at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.84 · 143 matches

Excursionistas away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.29 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Cordoba attack 1.13 + Excursionistas defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.21

Excursionistas attack 0.99 + Central Cordoba defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Central Cordoba scores more

43%

level

29%

Excursionistas scores more

28%

Central Cordoba at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Central Cordoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff