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Excelsior W vs AZ W — Eredivisie Women 2018

Excelsior W
Excelsior W
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
AZ W
AZ W
9/21/2025Eredivisie WomenEredivisie Women · Round 2Stadion Woudestein

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Excelsior W26%
×Draw20%
AZ W54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Excelsior W
1.58
AZ W
2.35

AZ W creates 49% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 33 away

creates per match

Excelsior W
1.14
AZ W
1.88

allows per match

Excelsior W
2.82
AZ W
2.03

finishing

Excelsior W+0.00on par
AZ W+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Excelsior W ↓

AZ W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Excelsior W or draw
46%
Excelsior W or AZ W
80%
Draw or AZ W
74%

Winning margin

Excelsior W wins by 2+
12%
AZ W wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Excelsior W 1+ goals
79%
Excelsior W 2+ goals
47%
Excelsior W 3+ goals
21%
AZ W 1+ goals
90%
AZ W 2+ goals
68%
AZ W 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Excelsior W (draw refunded)
32%
AZ W (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Excelsior W at home — creates 1.14, concedes 2.82 · 73 matches

AZ W away — creates 1.88, concedes 2.03 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Excelsior W attack 1.14 + AZ W defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.58

AZ W attack 1.88 + Excelsior W defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 2.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Excelsior W scores more
26%
level
20%
AZ W scores more
54%

AZ W at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "AZ W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eredivisie Women: Excelsior W 1–3 AZ W

AZ W beat Excelsior W 3-1 in Eredivisie Women on September 21, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Woudestein in Rotterdam.