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AZ W vs Excelsior W — Eredivisie Women 2018

AZ W
AZ W
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Excelsior W
Excelsior W
10/19/2024Eredivisie WomenEredivisie Women · Round 4AFAS Trainingscomplex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

AZ W59%
×Draw21%
Excelsior W19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AZ W
2.01
Excelsior W
1.06

AZ W creates 90% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 74 away

creates per match

AZ W
1.27
Excelsior W
0.68

allows per match

AZ W
1.45
Excelsior W
2.76

finishing

AZ W+0.00on par
Excelsior W+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AZ W ↓

Excelsior W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

AZ W or draw
81%
AZ W or Excelsior W
79%
Draw or Excelsior W
41%

Winning margin

AZ W wins by 2+
36%
Excelsior W wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

AZ W 1+ goals
87%
AZ W 2+ goals
59%
AZ W 3+ goals
32%
Excelsior W 1+ goals
65%
Excelsior W 2+ goals
29%
Excelsior W 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

AZ W (draw refunded)
75%
Excelsior W (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AZ W at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.45 · 33 matches

Excelsior W away — creates 0.68, concedes 2.76 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AZ W attack 1.27 + Excelsior W defence 2.76 → ÷2 → 2.01

Excelsior W attack 0.68 + AZ W defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

AZ W scores more
59%
level
21%
Excelsior W scores more
19%

AZ W at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "AZ W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AZ W vs Excelsior W

AZ W beat Excelsior W 4-0 in Eredivisie Women on October 19, 2024.

The match was played at AFAS Trainingscomplex in Wijdewormer.