Excelsior W 1–0 Achiless 29 W: Result & Stats

Excelsior W

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Achiless 29 W

2/22/2019

Eredivisie Women · Lower Table Round - 2Sportpark De Bongerd (Barendrecht)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Excelsior W70%

×Draw15%

Achiless 29 W15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Excelsior WExpected goals in this matchAchiless 29 W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.30

1.56

Excelsior W

3.30

Achiless 29 W

1.56

Excelsior W creates 112% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 13 away

1.14

creates per match

0.31

2.82

allows per match

5.46

creates per match

Excelsior W

1.14

Achiless 29 W

0.31

allows per match

Excelsior W

2.82

Achiless 29 W

5.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Excelsior W+0.00on par

Achiless 29 W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over86
Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Excelsior W ↓

Achiless 29 W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–14%

1–23%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–16%

4–25%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

86%14%3.5

70%30%4.5

51%49%

Double chance

Excelsior W or draw

85%

Excelsior W or Achiless 29 W

85%

Draw or Achiless 29 W

30%

Winning margin

Excelsior W wins by 2+

51%

Achiless 29 W wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Excelsior W 1+ goals

96%

Excelsior W 2+ goals

83%

Excelsior W 3+ goals

62%

Achiless 29 W 1+ goals

79%

Achiless 29 W 2+ goals

46%

Achiless 29 W 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Excelsior W (draw refunded)

82%

Achiless 29 W (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

72%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Excelsior W at home — creates 1.14, concedes 2.82 · 73 matches

Achiless 29 W away — creates 0.31, concedes 5.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Excelsior W attack 1.14 + Achiless 29 W defence 5.46 → ÷2 → 3.30

Achiless 29 W attack 0.31 + Excelsior W defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Excelsior W scores more

70%

level

15%

Achiless 29 W scores more

15%

Excelsior W at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Excelsior W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff