Achiless 29 W 1–0 Excelsior W: Result & Stats

Achiless 29 W

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Excelsior W

11/30/2018

Eredivisie Women · Round 12Sportpark De Heikant (Groesbeek)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Achiless 29 W28%

×Draw18%

Excelsior W53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Achiless 29 WExpected goals in this matchExcelsior W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

2.71

Achiless 29 W

1.96

Excelsior W

2.71

Excelsior W creates 38% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 74 away

1.17

creates per match

0.68

4.75

allows per match

2.76

creates per match

Achiless 29 W

1.17

Excelsior W

0.68

allows per match

Achiless 29 W

4.75

Excelsior W

2.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Achiless 29 W+0.00on par

Excelsior W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over84
Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes80
No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Achiless 29 W ↓

Excelsior W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–27%

1–36%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–34%

3–43%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

84%16%3.5

68%32%4.5

49%51%

Double chance

Achiless 29 W or draw

47%

Achiless 29 W or Excelsior W

82%

Draw or Excelsior W

72%

Winning margin

Achiless 29 W wins by 2+

14%

Excelsior W wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Achiless 29 W 1+ goals

86%

Achiless 29 W 2+ goals

58%

Achiless 29 W 3+ goals

31%

Excelsior W 1+ goals

93%

Excelsior W 2+ goals

75%

Excelsior W 3+ goals

50%

Draw no bet

Achiless 29 W (draw refunded)

34%

Excelsior W (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

75%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Achiless 29 W at home — creates 1.17, concedes 4.75 · 12 matches

Excelsior W away — creates 0.68, concedes 2.76 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Achiless 29 W attack 1.17 + Excelsior W defence 2.76 → ÷2 → 1.96

Excelsior W attack 0.68 + Achiless 29 W defence 4.75 → ÷2 → 2.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Achiless 29 W scores more

28%

level

18%

Excelsior W scores more

53%

Excelsior W at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Excelsior W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff