Excelsior vs Dordrecht — Eerste Divisie 2020
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 57+ matches
Excelsior56%
Dordrecht22%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Excelsior creates 68% more chances
Season form · 57 home / 114 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over64
- Under36
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes62
- No38
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Excelsior ↓
Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Excelsior at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.28 · 57 matches
Dordrecht away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.04 · 114 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Excelsior attack 2.11 + Dordrecht defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 2.08
Dordrecht attack 1.20 + Excelsior defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.24
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 56%?"
Excelsior at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 56% does not mean "Excelsior will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Emmen
FC Volendam
FC Eindhoven
ADO Den Haag
RodaExcelsior
Jong Ajax
NAC Breda
De Graafschap
VVV Venlo
Den Bosch
Jong PSV
Jong AZ
Almere City FC
FC OSS
MVVDordrecht
Jong Utrecht
Telstar
Helmond SportIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Excelsior host Dordrecht on Friday, 10 January 2025 at 19:00. The match is part of the Eerste Divisie 2020/2021 season.
Eerste Divisie: Excelsior 1–0 Dordrecht
Excelsior beat Dordrecht 1-0 in Eerste Divisie on January 10, 2025.
Goals: L. Duijvestijn (60').
Excelsior controlled possession (57%) and registered 8 shots to 7.
The match was played at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion in Rotterdam.