Dordrecht 2–2 Excelsior: Result & Stats

Dordrecht

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Excelsior

R. van Asten 75'

J. van der Sluijs 24'

C. Widell 48'

G. de Regt 6'

7/19/2025

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Dordrecht48%

×Draw21%

Excelsior31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DordrechtExpected goals in this matchExcelsior

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.60

Dordrecht

2.04

Excelsior

1.60

Dordrecht creates 27% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

1.80

creates per match

1.00

2.20

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Dordrecht

1.80

Excelsior

1.00

allows per match

Dordrecht

2.20

Excelsior

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dordrecht+0.00on par

Excelsior+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dordrecht ↓

Excelsior →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Dordrecht or draw

69%

Dordrecht or Excelsior

79%

Draw or Excelsior

52%

Winning margin

Dordrecht wins by 2+

27%

Excelsior wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Dordrecht 1+ goals

87%

Dordrecht 2+ goals

60%

Dordrecht 3+ goals

33%

Excelsior 1+ goals

80%

Excelsior 2+ goals

47%

Excelsior 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Dordrecht (draw refunded)

61%

Excelsior (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dordrecht at home — creates 1.80, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

Excelsior away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dordrecht attack 1.80 + Excelsior defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.04

Excelsior attack 1.00 + Dordrecht defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Dordrecht scores more

48%

level

21%

Excelsior scores more

31%

Dordrecht at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Dordrecht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

24'

48'

75'

Dordrecht

Excelsior

Manager: Dirk Kuijt

Manager: Ruben den Uil