Excelsior 3–1 De Graafschap: Result & Stats

Excelsior

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

De Graafschap

R. Omorowa 66'

J. Donkor 59'

A. Zagré 13'

P. Brittijn 90+5'

8/16/2024

Eerste Divisie · Round 2Van Donge & De Roo Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Excelsior45%

×Draw22%

De Graafschap33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ExcelsiorExpected goals in this matchDe Graafschap

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.57

Excelsior

1.88

De Graafschap

1.57

Excelsior creates 20% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 132 away

2.27

creates per match

1.68

1.46

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Excelsior

2.27

De Graafschap

1.68

allows per match

Excelsior

1.46

De Graafschap

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Excelsior+0.00on par

De Graafschap+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Excelsior ↓

De Graafschap →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Excelsior or draw

67%

Excelsior or De Graafschap

78%

Draw or De Graafschap

55%

Winning margin

Excelsior wins by 2+

25%

De Graafschap wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Excelsior 1+ goals

85%

Excelsior 2+ goals

56%

Excelsior 3+ goals

29%

De Graafschap 1+ goals

79%

De Graafschap 2+ goals

46%

De Graafschap 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Excelsior (draw refunded)

58%

De Graafschap (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Excelsior at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.46 · 70 matches

De Graafschap away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.48 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Excelsior attack 2.27 + De Graafschap defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.88

De Graafschap attack 1.68 + Excelsior defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Excelsior scores more

45%

level

22%

De Graafschap scores more

33%

Excelsior at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Excelsior will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

A. Zagré

Excelsior · D

8.2

Match Events

13'

A. Zagré

22'

Ilias Bronkhorst

57'

I. El Kadiri← S. Bisselink

59'

J. Donkor↳ N. Naujoks

64'

Donny Warmerdam

64'

J. Armantrading← J. Donkor

66'

R. Omorowa↳ I. Bronkhorst

71'

M. van Duinen← R. Omorowa

71'

J. de Almeida Reis← I. Bronkhorst

71'

J. Eijgenraam← L. Hartjes

72'

M. Mahi← J. van de Haar

72'

G. Büttner← R. Seuntjens

72'

Y. Eduardo← T. van Gilst

80'

S. de Moes← A. Zagré

80'

S. Wevers← D. Warmerdam

84'

Joshua Eijgenraam

90+3'

Mike van Duinen

90+1'

S. Middendorp← C. Hatenboer

90+5'

P. Brittijn↳ M. Mahi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ExcelsiorDe

Overview

45%Possession55%

15Total Shots15

6Corners4

14Fouls3

Shots

15Total Shots15

4On Target6

8Off Target6

3Blocked3

11Inside Box10

4Outside Box5

Passing

45%Possession55%

367Total Passes449

272Accurate Passes355

74%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls3

3Yellow Cards1

3Offsides0