De Graafschap 2–1 Excelsior: Result & Stats

De Graafschap

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Excelsior

I. El Kadiri 83'

P. Brittijn 41'

D. Sanches Fernandes 14'

3/7/2025

Eerste Divisie · Round 29Stadion De Vijverberg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

De Graafschap45%

×Draw23%

Excelsior32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

De GraafschapExpected goals in this matchExcelsior

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.41

De Graafschap

1.72

Excelsior

1.41

De Graafschap creates 22% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 69 away

1.86

creates per match

1.71

1.11

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

De Graafschap

1.86

Excelsior

1.71

allows per match

De Graafschap

1.11

Excelsior

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

De Graafschap+0.00on par

Excelsior+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

De Graafschap ↓

Excelsior →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

De Graafschap or draw

68%

De Graafschap or Excelsior

77%

Draw or Excelsior

55%

Winning margin

De Graafschap wins by 2+

24%

Excelsior wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

De Graafschap 1+ goals

82%

De Graafschap 2+ goals

51%

De Graafschap 3+ goals

25%

Excelsior 1+ goals

76%

Excelsior 2+ goals

41%

Excelsior 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

De Graafschap (draw refunded)

59%

Excelsior (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

De Graafschap at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.11 · 132 matches

Excelsior away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.57 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

De Graafschap attack 1.86 + Excelsior defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.72

Excelsior attack 1.71 + De Graafschap defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

De Graafschap scores more

45%

level

23%

Excelsior scores more

32%

De Graafschap at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "De Graafschap will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

I. Bronkhorst

Excelsior · D

7.9

Match Events

14'

D. Sanches Fernandes↳ I. Bronkhorst

41'

P. Brittijn↳ Jeffry Fortes

46'

A. Najah← L. Kaak

46'

I. El Kadiri← R. Niemeijer

51'

Kaya Symons

54'

L. Schoppema← K. Symons

65'

D. Warmerdam← K. Pierie

70'

Richie Omorowa

70'

J. Donkor← D. Sanches Fernandes

70'

J. Bergraaf← R. Omorowa

73'

D. Warmerdam← A. van der Heide

73'

R. Seuntjens← J. van de Haar

80'

N. Martens← S. Fini

83'

I. El Kadiri↳ T. van Gilst

86'

M. van Duinen← J. Eijgenraam

90+1'

R. Besselink← T. van Gilst

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeExcelsior

Overview

49%Possession51%

7Total Shots14

1Corners8

8Fouls13

Shots

7Total Shots14

2On Target3

4Off Target9

1Blocked2

6Inside Box9

1Outside Box5

Passing

49%Possession51%

412Total Passes437

309Accurate Passes335

75%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

8Fouls13

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides3