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Excelsior Maassluis vs AFC Amsterdam — Tweede Divisie 2019

Excelsior Maassluis
Excelsior Maassluis
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
AFC Amsterdam
AFC Amsterdam
12/14/2024Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 17Sportpark Dijkpolder

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Excelsior Maassluis35%
×Draw25%
AFC Amsterdam40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Excelsior Maassluis
1.40
AFC Amsterdam
1.51

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 104 home / 100 away

creates per match

Excelsior Maassluis
1.46
AFC Amsterdam
1.68

allows per match

Excelsior Maassluis
1.34
AFC Amsterdam
1.34

finishing

Excelsior Maassluis+0.00on par
AFC Amsterdam+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Excelsior Maassluis ↓

AFC Amsterdam →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Excelsior Maassluis or draw
60%
Excelsior Maassluis or AFC Amsterdam
75%
Draw or AFC Amsterdam
65%

Winning margin

Excelsior Maassluis wins by 2+
16%
AFC Amsterdam wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Excelsior Maassluis 1+ goals
75%
Excelsior Maassluis 2+ goals
41%
Excelsior Maassluis 3+ goals
17%
AFC Amsterdam 1+ goals
78%
AFC Amsterdam 2+ goals
44%
AFC Amsterdam 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Excelsior Maassluis (draw refunded)
47%
AFC Amsterdam (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Excelsior Maassluis at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.34 · 104 matches

AFC Amsterdam away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.34 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Excelsior Maassluis attack 1.46 + AFC Amsterdam defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.40

AFC Amsterdam attack 1.68 + Excelsior Maassluis defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Excelsior Maassluis scores more
35%
level
25%
AFC Amsterdam scores more
40%

AFC Amsterdam at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "AFC Amsterdam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Excelsior Maassluis vs AFC Amsterdam

AFC Amsterdam beat Excelsior Maassluis 2-0 in Tweede Divisie on December 14, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark Dijkpolder in Maassluis.