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AFC Amsterdam vs Excelsior Maassluis — Tweede Divisie 2019

AFC Amsterdam
AFC Amsterdam
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Excelsior Maassluis
Excelsior Maassluis
5/24/2025Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 34Sportpark Goed Genoeg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

AFC Amsterdam56%
×Draw21%
Excelsior Maassluis22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AFC Amsterdam
2.03
Excelsior Maassluis
1.21

AFC Amsterdam creates 68% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 104 away

creates per match

AFC Amsterdam
1.97
Excelsior Maassluis
1.16

allows per match

AFC Amsterdam
1.26
Excelsior Maassluis
2.09

finishing

AFC Amsterdam+0.00on par
Excelsior Maassluis+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Amsterdam ↓

Excelsior Maassluis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

AFC Amsterdam or draw
78%
AFC Amsterdam or Excelsior Maassluis
79%
Draw or Excelsior Maassluis
44%

Winning margin

AFC Amsterdam wins by 2+
33%
Excelsior Maassluis wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

AFC Amsterdam 1+ goals
87%
AFC Amsterdam 2+ goals
60%
AFC Amsterdam 3+ goals
33%
Excelsior Maassluis 1+ goals
70%
Excelsior Maassluis 2+ goals
34%
Excelsior Maassluis 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

AFC Amsterdam (draw refunded)
71%
Excelsior Maassluis (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Amsterdam at home — creates 1.97, concedes 1.26 · 99 matches

Excelsior Maassluis away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.09 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Amsterdam attack 1.97 + Excelsior Maassluis defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 2.03

Excelsior Maassluis attack 1.16 + AFC Amsterdam defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

AFC Amsterdam scores more
56%
level
21%
Excelsior Maassluis scores more
22%

AFC Amsterdam at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "AFC Amsterdam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AFC Amsterdam vs Excelsior Maassluis

AFC Amsterdam and Excelsior Maassluis drew 1-1 in Tweede Divisie on May 24, 2025.

The match was played at Sportpark Goed Genoeg in Amsterdam.