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Everton vs West Ham — Premier League 2026

Everton
Everton
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
West Ham
West Ham
R. Barkley 76'
R. Lukaku 50'
10/30/2016Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 10Goodison Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Everton46%
×Draw25%
West Ham29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Everton
1.57
West Ham
1.19

Everton creates 32% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 35 away

creates per match

Everton
1.29
West Ham
1.06

allows per match

Everton
1.31
West Ham
1.85

finishing

Everton-0.13scores less
West Ham-0.09on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Everton ↓

West Ham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Everton or draw
71%
Everton or West Ham
75%
Draw or West Ham
54%

Winning margin

Everton wins by 2+
23%
West Ham wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Everton 1+ goals
79%
Everton 2+ goals
46%
Everton 3+ goals
21%
West Ham 1+ goals
70%
West Ham 2+ goals
33%
West Ham 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Everton (draw refunded)
61%
West Ham (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Everton at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.31 · 25 matches

West Ham away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.85 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Everton attack 1.29 + West Ham defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.57

West Ham attack 1.06 + Everton defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Everton scores more
46%
level
25%
West Ham scores more
29%

Everton at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Everton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
R. LukakuEvertonEverton · F
9.1

Match Events

31'
Idrissa Gueye
50'
R. Lukaku↳ Y. Bolasie
54'
Pedro Obiang
60'
A. Ayew← Pedro Obiang
67'
Winston Reid
71'
S. Zaza← E. Fernandes
72'
T. Cleverley← K. Mirallas
74'
Bryan Oviedo
76'
R. Barkley↳ R. Lukaku
78'
S. Feghouli← M. Lanzini
83'
P. Jagielka← Y. Bolasie
87'
A. Lennon← R. Barkley
89'
Michail Antonio

Possession

49%Everton

Shots

17Everton

Pass accuracy

49%Everton

Statistics

EvertonWest
Overview
49%Possession51%
17Total Shots13
8Corners8
15Fouls12
Shots
17Total Shots13
6On Target3
4Off Target4
7Blocked6
12Inside Box7
5Outside Box6
Passing
49%Possession51%
410Total Passes418
333Accurate Passes351
81%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
Discipline
15Fouls12
2Yellow Cards3
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Everton vs West Ham

Everton beat West Ham 2-0 in Premier League on October 30, 2016.

Goals: R. Lukaku (50'), R. Barkley (76').

West Ham controlled possession (51%) and registered 13 shots to 17.

The match was played at Goodison Park in Liverpool.