Everton 2–0 Huddersfield: Result & Stats

Everton

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Huddersfield

D. Calvert-Lewin 73'

G. Sigurðsson 47'

12/2/2017

Premier League · Round 15Goodison Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Everton54%

×Draw25%

Huddersfield21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EvertonExpected goals in this matchHuddersfield

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

0.92

Everton

1.65

Huddersfield

0.92

Everton creates 79% more chances

Season form · 179 home / 36 away

1.36

creates per match

0.58

1.25

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Everton

1.36

Huddersfield

0.58

allows per match

Everton

1.25

Huddersfield

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Everton+0.00on par

Huddersfield+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Everton ↓

Huddersfield →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Everton or draw

79%

Everton or Huddersfield

75%

Draw or Huddersfield

46%

Winning margin

Everton wins by 2+

29%

Huddersfield wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Everton 1+ goals

81%

Everton 2+ goals

49%

Everton 3+ goals

23%

Huddersfield 1+ goals

60%

Huddersfield 2+ goals

23%

Huddersfield 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Everton (draw refunded)

72%

Huddersfield (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Everton at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.25 · 179 matches

Huddersfield away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.94 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Everton attack 1.36 + Huddersfield defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.65

Huddersfield attack 0.58 + Everton defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Everton scores more

54%

level

25%

Huddersfield scores more

21%

Everton at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Everton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

D. Calvert-Lewin

Everton · F

8.2

Match Events

22'

23'

24'

46'

47'

G. Sigurðsson↳ D. Calvert-Lewin

66'

M. Schneiderlin← T. Davies

71'

A. Lookman← A. Lennon

71'

S. Mounié← S. Malone

73'

D. Calvert-Lewin↳ W. Rooney

80'

M. Keane← W. Rooney

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EvertonHuddersfield

Overview

47%Possession53%

6Total Shots5

2Corners5

12Fouls9

Shots

6Total Shots5

4On Target3

1Off Target2

1Blocked0

3Inside Box3

3Outside Box2

Passing

47%Possession53%

367Total Passes396

252Accurate Passes281

69%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls9

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0