Everton 2–0 Burnley: Result & Stats

Everton

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Burnley

S. Coleman 20'

B. Mee 17' (OG)

5/3/2019

Premier League · Round 37Goodison Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Everton53%

×Draw24%

Burnley23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EvertonExpected goals in this matchBurnley

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.05

Everton

1.70

Burnley

1.05

Everton creates 62% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 21 away

1.29

creates per match

0.79

1.31

allows per match

2.10

creates per match

Everton

1.29

Burnley

0.79

allows per match

Everton

1.31

Burnley

2.10

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

+0.40scores more than expected

finishing

Everton-0.13scores less

Burnley+0.40scores more

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Everton ↓

Burnley →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Everton or draw

77%

Everton or Burnley

76%

Draw or Burnley

47%

Winning margin

Everton wins by 2+

29%

Burnley wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Everton 1+ goals

82%

Everton 2+ goals

51%

Everton 3+ goals

24%

Burnley 1+ goals

65%

Burnley 2+ goals

28%

Burnley 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Everton (draw refunded)

69%

Burnley (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Everton at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.31 · 25 matches

Burnley away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.10 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Everton attack 1.29 + Burnley defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.70

Burnley attack 0.79 + Everton defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Everton scores more

53%

level

24%

Burnley scores more

23%

Everton at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Everton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

M. Schneiderlin

Everton · M

7.7

Match Events

17'

B. MeeOwn goal

20'

S. Coleman

37'

Ashley Westwood

49'

T. Walcott← Richarlison

69'

D. McNeil← J. Guðmundsson

72'

M. Vydra← A. Barnes

73'

A. Lookman← Bernard

80'

James Tarkowski

80'

J. Hendrick← R. Brady

90+1'

P. Jagielka← G. Sigurðsson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EvertonBurnley

Overview

60%Possession40%

20Total Shots5

8Corners1

8Fouls9

Shots

20Total Shots5

6On Target1

9Off Target4

5Blocked0

10Inside Box3

10Outside Box2

Passing

60%Possession40%

555Total Passes369

464Accurate Passes269

84%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

8Fouls9

0Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2